Learning the Ropes

Multiple constituencies, products, and research foster growth

By Nicholas Imparato

E-learning is catching on - it has grown nearly eightfold in the last three years to an expected $4 billion revenue by the end of 2000, according to International Data Corp. The enthusiasm is a function of multiple constituencies: Bean counters see the cost savings, while most HR, organizational-development, and training people view e-learning, especially in conjunction with more traditional programs, as the choice tool for growing a smart organization quickly and evenly. The operations managers see added efficiencies because e-learning can avoid the workflow interruptions associated with off-site seminars. And the folks in IT get excited when John Chambers, Cisco's CEO, says that "education is the killer application" for the Web.

Unfreezing Expectations

Two things are driving this trend at a macro level. The first is the realization that e-learning doesn't have to be about Web-based courses. In fact, e-learning may soon refer more often to performance-support content than to the page-turning, textbook-like products that dominate the market today.

The great advantage of performance-support material is that it gives users what they want when they want it. People don't always have time for a course (or interest, for that matter), just the need to know what to do with an immediate problem.

Enter performance support - it might be a list of 10 proven steps (each with a link to more detailed information), an overview of objectives or how to select them, Q&As about recurring issues, or analytic tools and worksheets to quickly take someone through a thought process or get some concrete conclusions.

Several providers offer this kind of material, covering topics and situations that include giving feedback, making a presentation, analyzing some financial information, running a meeting, or negotiating. The topic list will grow as users recognize the value of complementing just-in-case learning with just-in-time learning (or learning on demand). And although the field has a clear leader in the Harvard ManageMentor product from Harvard Business School Publishing, the number of good offerings will grow as well.

A Growing Sophistication

The second factor driving e-learning is that buyers are becoming more sophisticated in understanding the decision process.

They have overcome the embarrassment of being overwhelmed by choice - the enormous number of vendors claiming a unique "end-to-end, total solution."

Two excellent publications regarding content and learning management software are behind this increasing savvy. Lguide, a Tacoma, Wash.-based research and consulting firm, recently produced a comparative analysis of e-learning publishers. Its 280-page review lists "leading" publishers of business skills (14), desktop applications (11), and IT professional resources (10).

I am not sure what the count is today, but the last estimate I saw listed more than 1,200 firms selling hundreds of thousands of courses. No organization can distill that many alternatives down to a few dozen in one report, as Lguide is ready to admit. Yet, it has made a great contribution with diligent adherence to a methodology that brings order to an area teeming with alternatives and hype. The report not only looks at whether a course offers interactivity, for example, but also evaluates the relevance of interactive exercises and the utility of simulation feedback.

In a similar way, Brandon-Hall.com of Palo Alto, Calif. produced a 500+ page study of 61 learning management systems (LMS), the software that registers users, launches and tracks online content and individual performance, and compiles reports for administrators. Its product review distinguishes among types of use (enterprise level, classroom management, ASPs, and so forth) so that a reader is strategizing and not just shopping.

The study also sensitizes readers to important trends, noting, for example, the dramatic increase in companies that intend to meet an agreed upon industry standard in 2001, up nearly 50 percent from 2000.

No manager can think seriously about e-learning without studying either the Lguide or Brandon-Hall reports, despite disappointed vendors. Of course, other research needs to be acknowledged as well. Nonetheless, CEOs really don't care about which technology or what context is used. All they want to see is sales go up. And delivering on that goal is still the challenge.

Nicholas Imparato [imparato@hoover.stanford.edu] leads the primewave.com e-learning project, and as such, is a customer of several firms mentioned in this column.

Resources

Brandon-Hall.com
Harvard ManageMentor
Lguide